Looking back, 2024 has been a year of significant change. The “face” of both BART and Caltrain transformed as BART fully retired its two-door legacy fleet, and Caltrain introduced electric trainsets while retiring its gallery cars. In Seattle, the Link system added a new line connecting Redmond and Bellevue and expanded northward from Northgate to Lynnwood, replacing many express buses serving Seattle from Snohomish County. In Los Angeles, Metro recently introduced new metro cars made by CRRC for the B and D lines, as the first phase of D line extensions further west is nearly complete. Many transit agencies saw improved ridership as more workers returned to the office, and more services were restored as additional transit workers were hired.
Next year, both Muni and BART will raise fares, and the tolls for Bay Area Toll Authority bridges will increase by $1. BART will begin installing the CBTC system, which will enhance capacity but requires service adjustments. As a result, Millbrae riders will need to transfer between trains at SFO in the evening. Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit will open Petaluma North Station soon after the new year and extend northward to Windsor sometime in 2025.
In Sacramento, the SmaRT Ride microtransit will be transformed into a different program with fewer vehicles, a reduced budget, and limited eligibility.
In Seattle, Link Line 2 is expected to connect South Bellevue to Seattle across Lake Washington once the I-90 track re-work, which delayed the project, is complete.
LA Metro is also expected to open the LAX Metro Center and the first phase of the D Line extension to Wilshire/La Cienega sometime next year. The D Line extension is significant due to the high bus ridership on Wilshire and the speed improvements a new subway line will bring.
However, 2025 is worrisome, given the increasingly chaotic political climate and the hostility towards transit among elected and unelected decision-makers. Bay Area transit agencies will also face a fiscal cliff as ridership remains slow to return and one-time pandemic-era grants run out. Over the last few decades, Bay Area transit have seen fiscal cliffs with economic recessions (drop in tax revenues, and falling ridership with higher unemployment), but no recession has such a deep and lasting impact on transit service as COVID. Development in autonomous vehicles, backed by wealthy Silicon Valley tech bros, could impact the public’s attitude towards transit. Even if the technology is perfected, these vehicles can’t assist senior and disabled riders and do little to address traffic congestion due to the inefficiency of single-occupancy vehicles.